Death and Destruction in Gaza John J. Mearsheimer 12 Dec 2023

I do not believe that anything I say about what is happening in Gaza will affect Israeli or American policy in that conflict. But I want to be on record so that when historians look back on this moral calamity, they will see that some Americans were on the right side of history. What Israel is doing in Gaza to the Palestinian civilian population – with the support of the Biden administration – is a crime against humanity that serves no meaningful military purpose. As J-Street, an important organization in the Israel lobby, puts it, “The scope of the unfolding humanitarian disaster and civilian casualties is nearly unfathomable.”[1] Let me elaborate. First, Israel is purposely massacring huge number of civilians, roughly 70 percent of whom are children and women. The claim that Israel is going to great lengths to minimize civilian casualties is belied by statements from high level Israeli officials. For example, the IDF spokesman said on 10 October 2023 that "the emphasis is on damage and not on accuracy." That same day, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced: "I have lowered all the restraints – we will kill everyone we fight against; we will use every means."[2]

As Russia Signals It Can Achieve Maximalist Aims in Ukraine, How Would Russia Manage Kiev and Western Ukraine? Posted on December 18, 2023 by Yves Smith

The West has made many bold pronouncements of its intentions for post-war Ukraine…of course, assuming a post-war Ukraine, starting with having Ukraine join NATO and the EU. And Russia has mainly ignored them and until of late, avoided making similar pronouncements. Russian officials had held to the mantra of pursuing the Special Military Operation until all its objectives were achieved. Russia has notably been closed-mouthed about how the war has been going, much to the consternation of some in Russia, who wanted to see Russia playing a more aggressive propaganda game. So why is Russia acting in what would seem to be an out of character manner, telegraphing a maximalist view of what its Special Military Operation aims translate into when big funding packages in the US and EU are in play? Specifically, that if no one tries to come to a deal soon, Russia will install a more cooperative government, which translates into taking most or all of Ukraine. And Putin has even taken to giving more history lessons as to why Ukraine is at a minimum a branch of the Russian people and has declared Odessa to be a Russian city. 1 One would think Russia would be more circumspect. After all, pointing out what ought to be obvious is still more reality than the Collective West can bear right now. And there is a lot of “If we don’t give Ukraine more money and weapons, Putin will go to Paris” talk. Russian officials saying the end game will likely require more territorial, as in a lot more, can be spun as proof of those fears. As we’ll discuss shortly, absent a wildly unexpected development, Russia has the capacity to subdue all of Ukraine by force. Normally cautious Russian officials are effectively saying that to Russian citizens, even at the risk of further provoking the US and NATO. That is likely because they know full well what some Western commentators have pointed out, that the West simply cannot begin to compete with Russia in arms production, even before getting to the superiority of Russian systems in most categories. Despite recognition of that sorry fact in some quarters, the West is not making serious efforts to rearm or increase manning levels. And a second, more critical factor with respect to Ukraine is it has burned through nearly all of its experienced soldiers, and is falling short of filling the ranks with new conscripts, who wind up being cannon fodder.

Why Is U.S. Intelligence Lying About the War in Ukraine? 13 December 2023 by Larry Johnson

The Biden Administration declassified a U.S. intelligence assessment on the war in Ukraine and it was promptly shared with the media as part of a Biden Administration full court press to persuade Congress to cough up more bucks for Ukraine. The information reported by Politico and CNN is disturbing because it shows the U.S. is out of touch with reality and furiously spinning in order to give the politicians what they want to hear. These are classic examples of politics taking precedence over intelligence. Politico’s piece — US declassifies intel as the White House pushes for more Ukraine funding — focuses on the nonsensical meme that Russia is banking on a stalemate and insists that Russia is suffering terrible losses: The U.S. assesses that Russia believes it is helped by a military stalemate with Ukraine that saps Western support for Kyiv, making its war easier to win. “Russia is determined to press forward with its offensive despite its losses,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement. “It is more critical now than ever that we maintain our support for Ukraine so they can continue to hold the line and regain their territory.” Further American intelligence indicates the Western-backed Ukrainian campaign is having some success. More than 13,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded and over 220 combat vehicles destroyed along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis in eastern Ukraine since October, Watson said. She added that the Kremlin’s forces continue to pound targets in eastern Ukraine including around Avdiivka, Lyman and Kupyansk. The IC is not presenting an accurate picture of what is unfolding in Ukraine. The assessment pushes the claim that Russia is suffering massive losses because of the “Western-backed campaign.” This is intended to convey the message that there is still hope for Ukraine. But a proper “intel assessment” should have made the three fundamental points: The uptick in Russian casualties since October is a consequence of Russia going on the offensive all along the line of contact and that Russia is making significant progress in pushing Ukrainian forces out of long held positions. Avdeevka is the most salient example. There is no stalemate. Ukraine’s losses, as compared to Russia’s, are greater by a factor of at least 5 to 1, and Russia, unlike Ukraine, has ample reserves of troops, tanks, artillery pieces and ammunition. Russia’s defense industry is operating on a war footing and is churning out massive numbers of tanks, armored personnel carriers, drones, planes, artillery and ammunition. The United State and NATO combined are producing only a fraction of what Russia is doing.

Israel-Palestine: An Analysis Based on Danny Haiphong's recent Interview with Alastair Crooke Dr. Rob Campbell Dec 3

Israel-Palestine: An Analysis Oct 7th and after: an analysis by Alastair Crooke

Temple Mount, Jerusalem Alastair Crooke is a former British diplomat who has some expertise on the middle east. Most of you will have heard of him. His recent interview with Danny Haiphong just before the ceasefire ended was one of the most informative and insightful I have seen in connection with the current conflict in the middle east so I have decided to provide a separate summary of the main points he makes along with some of my own observations. I learned a lot from it and now have a better understanding of the dynamics in play. I am hoping that many of you will also benefit. This summary is about 9 minutes long whereas the interview lasted more than an hour which may be off putting for some. This is why I have not simply provided a link. Crooke places the conflict in the context of certain events that preceded it, including changes in the make up of the Israeli government since December of 2022. Netanyahu’s government comprises a coalition of right wing parties including the extremist Shas group which holds the balance of power. The Shas party is popular among the Mizrahi group of Jews who originally came from the west Asia and north Africa. These people, along with their representatives in government, have extremist views, including a desire to expand Israel westward (i.e. towards Egypt), to the north (i.e. Lebanon) and further into the West Bank. This would also involve the expulsion of Palestinians from ‘greater Israel’. The Mizrahi have been regarded as an underclass in Israel for a long time, subordinate to the Ashkenazi Jews who come mainly from Europe. Among those allied to Shas are members of the Settler movement, the radical religious movement and Orthodox Jews, all of whom desire this expansion of Israel and the expulsion of Palestinians. All of these, along with Netanyahu and his whole cabinet, are opposed to the ‘two state’ solution. Some of the Mizrahi who hold government positions want to build a third temple on the Temple Mount (see photo above) which they know will elicit a hostile response from Muslims for whom the mount and the golden roofed mosque (i.e. Al Aqsa) are sacred (Muhammad is supposed to have ascended to heaven from here). The Second Intifada in 2000 was provoked by Ariel Sharon when he visited the Al Aqsa compound which is off limits for non-Muslims. In recent times the Israelis have made provocative visits to the mount, which is also holy to them, including an underground cabinet meeting in which the Israelis claimed sovereignty over the land on which the mount stands. The construction of this third temple would mean destroying Al Aqsa - which is the third most sacred place on earth for Muslims. The process of building the temple has actually started, according to Crooke, but opposition to it will unite the various factions within the Muslim and Arab worlds. The reaction would be similar to what we would expect from Catholics if Muslims wanted to destroy the Vatican and replace it with a mosque. When Israelis clashed with Palestinians some time ago after Israeli settlers stormed into the temple grounds, Hamas called this the Al Aqsa intifada rather than the Palestinian intifada. This was a shrewd political move because it had the potential to unite the Islamic world in support of the intifada. But more recently, just prior to October 7th, Israeli settlers stormed into Al Aqsa once more and were supported by the police - and this could have provided the trigger for the implementation of a Hamas plan that had been in place for some time. It is also possible that the provocation was intended to trigger Hamas’s plan - who knows. Crooke describes the actions of both the Israelis and Hamas as revolutionary in character, appealing to the emotions of those involved on either side rather than on any calculations. For the Palestinians, the two state solution, which has been almost forgotten by most of the world, including the Muslim world, has been placed firmly back on the agenda. Indeed, most of the RoW is talking about it along with some in the Western world. So, in this sense Hamas has already been successful. But this also provides a challenge to the equally revolutionary view of Israeli expansion among the right wing. Under the current circumstances, it is hard to imagine the world allowing this to happen. Most people are probably in favour of Israeli contraction rather than expansion. Reformist Jewish groups in the US and elsewhere would be part of ‘most people’ and in Israel itself there is much opposition to expansion. The Netanyahu government, though facing opposition from much of the world, is sustained in its genocidal policy by Israeli public opinion. 90% of Israelis want Hamas and Gaza eliminated; they do not want a ceasefire. These people, who have lived for years under perceived threat in their isolated position surrounded by Arab/Muslim nations (with which they do not have good relations) have been driven out of their minds by the prospect of being overwhelmed by Hamas following October 7th. This map of the middle east shows how isolated Israel actually is: The map also shows how precarious it will be for the US to get involved further in this conflict. But Israelis face potential threats from Hezbollah, a much more formidable force than Hamas, along with Yemen, Iraq and Syria. The Palestinians have agreed to cooperate with other groups as part of a unified front which seeks to secure progress while avoiding a full on conflict with the US or between the US and Iran. None of the Arab nation states want the US destruction of infrastructure they have witnessed in Lebanon and elsewhere so they have been reluctant to get involved in full scale war with the West. Thus, it has been left to smaller militia groups to get involved in the fighting; all of whom will also want to limit any destruction to Israel and Palestine. Therefore, operations are conducted at different levels of intensity/involvement by the various groups including Hamas and Hezbollah. Recently, Hezbollah has been involved in small scale exchanges with Israel in the north but they have said that they will not become fully involved unless Hamas is on the verge of defeat which Hezbollah does not believe to be the case at the current time at least. But Israel will be aware of the threat posed by Hezbollah which is pulling many of its forces north and away from Gaza. Hezbollah is also gradually increasing its attacks which must be worrying for the Israelis. Crooke points out that some of the militias in the middle east, in Lebanon or Iraq for example, are linked with Iran (as the US is always pointing out), but the vast majority are not. Some are a mix of Suni and Shia Muslims while others are pure Suni/Iraqi nationalists who want the Americans out of their country. Every day these groups are attacking US bases in Iraq. Syrian nationalists are also attacking US bases in Syria. The Americans, for their part, are in a quandary, not knowing whether to send troops into the conflict or withdraw their forces from the region. If they choose the former, they will face difficulties in finding bases from which to operate (as can be seen from the above map) and they will face massive opposition at home. But pulling out will add to the disasters of Afghanistan and Ukraine plus certain election defeat for Biden (if he runs). Pulling out will also expose Israel to dangers that US politicians and many of the public will find unacceptable. The US really has a problem with supporting countries in vulnerable positions. Crooke describes Hezbollah as the third most powerful military force in West Asia. It is well trained, well versed in electronic warfare, very well equipped with rockets etc. and has plenty of combat experience. The Israeli cabinet recently wanted to strike Hezbollah hard but Netanyahu refused - maybe because he understands how formidable an opponent Hezbollah could turn out to be. But the Israeli government also faces protests from the 200,000 Israelis who have been evacuated from the north near the border with Lebanon and are demanding that Israel eliminate the Hezbollah threat so they can return home. These people are currently living in hotels. In view of this, the Israeli government faces pressure to escalate against Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Yemeni involvement with shipping is becoming problematic as some ships have decided to journey to Europe via the west coast of Africa in order to avoid problems with the Houthis. Israel also faces a revolutionary explosion internally in the occupied and incendiary West Bank. Indeed, the Israeli government has made it even more incendiary by placing army reservists from the settler community to police the West Bank while regulars have gone to Gaza. It has also issued automatic weapons along with uniforms to settlers in the West Bank so that they can defend themselves - though this has led to an increase in attacks against Palestinians. There is concern that the settlers could attack Al Aqsa mosque which would let all hell loose. Interestingly, Crooke also notes a change of attitude in the Islamic/Arab world generally, which can be seen at the huge pro-Palestinian protests in many Muslim countries. Crooke also observed this change in released Palestinian prisoners who emerged from their incarceration strong and powerful. They kissed their relatives, but, significantly, they blessed Allah and kissed the ground of Palestine. This suggests an emergent Islamic Nationalism, according to Crooke. This fusion of the two has been absent from the Arab world for decades but it could become a force to be reckoned with - as it has in the past. ‘The energy that seems to be there portends a long, long struggle’, Crooke said ‘…..that ultimately threatens the survival of Israel’. I think Boris Rozhin said that the conflict in the middle east can be seen as part of the emerging multi-Polar World Order and perhaps the changes in attitude Crooke draws attention to are evidence of that. Crooke believes that much of Israel’s reaction to Oct 7th is merely revenge; they have killed more than 5,000 Palestinian children because Hamas killed their own children and they probably believe that the lives of their own people are worth much more than those of the Palestinians. Crooke also joins Scott Ritter in suggesting that Israel has had very little success against Hamas who are occupying underground fortresses and attacking the Israelis through their tunnel network. Crooke says that he has seen no evidence of killed Hamas fighters which Israel would have produced if they had killed them. Given this situation, it is not clear what Israel will do next. It is possible that they will continue the genocide in the Gaza, carefully trying to weed out Hamas while minimising their own casualties. Even if Netanyahu goes, his possible replacements will probably adopt a similar approach because they have similar views and will be driven by a fearful public intent on revenge. Of course, US intervention could change things but that is by no means certain to happen. Therefore, I believe, the conflict will simply drag on and on. I will not be sharing this on social media, apart from my Telegram Channel, but feel free to do so if you wish. My two weekly Updates will still be available on Friday.