Russia and Nato at War

James Rooney 14/3/22

Russia has committed the supreme crime in initiating a war of aggression against Ukraine. Nothing can remove the opprobrium attached to that, however, only the naive would accept at face value, the Western narrative of unprovoked aggression against peace loving, democratic Ukraine by the new Hitler (or should it be Stalin?) who wants to conquer the Ukraine and reconstitute the Soviet Union. For a start, you only have to recall that it was Russia's secession from the Soviet Union that caused it to collapse in the first place.

The war in Ukraine is only a part of a much greater struggle. Russia and Nato are at war. It is a fight for survival. For the moment, Nato’s war on Russia is informational and economic with the fighting being done through proxies. This conflict, however, is extremely dangerous and could spiral out of control very quickly. The danger of nuclear war has never been greater. 

Provoking the Russian bear and arousing the Eurasian giant hasn’t been one of the neocons brightest ideas. Russia and China have entered into a grand strategic partnership that is set to become the predominant force on the planet. The Russians repeatedly warned that Ukraine joining Nato was a redline for them, they regard it as an existential threat. Having seen Nato expand all the way to Russia’s borders following the collapse of the Soviet Union (despite promises to the contrary) the Russians drew a line in the sand over Ukraine only to see it become a defacto Nato state armed and trained by the West with a virulent anti-Russian ideology and strong links to ultra-nationalist, neo-Nazi groups. Their other major grievance was the placement of nuclear capable missiles in former Soviet Republics. Russia’s security demands were communicated to the US with crystal clear clarity and ignored.

The root cause of this crisis is the neocons' delusional goal of global hegemony. They adhere to a dangerous messianic ideology that believes in America’ manifest destiny to rule the globe and spread democracy and American values around the world. American foreign policy, irrespective of whichever party is in power, is directed by the neocons. Neocon objectives are laid out in the Project for a New American Century (PNAC) which openly advocates total global military domination. There would be no peer competitors and a ‘rules based order’ in which America sets the rules and others follow or face sanctions or invasion. 

With regards to Russia the overriding strategy of the US is the Wolfowitz doctrine, which says in part: ‘Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere. … This is a dominant consideration underlying [a] regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavour to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.’

This has been the guiding principle of US policy in the Ukraine for years, directed by arch neocon, Victoria Nuland. The same who boasted of spending 5 billion in orchestrating the ‘colour revolution,’ coup that overthrew the pro-Russian government. A sordid feature of this unsavoury business has been the funding, support and empowerment of neo-nazi groups in the Ukraine who have undue influence in government circles. The neocons believe that Russia stripped of Ukraine could never again be a great power, they have sought to use Ukraine to ‘break Russia’ (Henry Kissinger). 

Following the failed attempt to conquer the rebel provinces in the east, for 8 years the Ukrainian army bombarded the Donbass republics with artillery strikes causing an estimated 8-10 000 civilian casualties (without so much as a word of protest from the Western Media). The Ukrainians threatened to retake the Crimea and Donbass by force and massed their army on the borders of the rebel poised to attack. Further adding to tensions were aborted colour revolutions in Belarus and Kazakhstan and the Ukrainians threatening to develop nuclear weapons. It was in this context the Russians decided to strike in a move that took me by surprise and stunned the world. 

Contrary to reporting in the Western Press, the Russians have achieved a swift and decisive victory over Ukraine. The Ukrainian air force and navy along with command and control centres were wiped out on the first day. The Ukrainians have lost most of their heavy equipment and are no longer capable of coordinated operations. Their main army, 60 - 80 000 strong, massed on the borders of the Donbass has been completely surrounded. They are in a cauldron, well dug in and difficult to subdue, however they have only two real options, surrender or face annihilation. The Russians do not want to inflict heavy casualties on the Ukrainians whom they regard as brothers.  

The Russians have conquered virtually all of the Black Sea coast and have almost surrounded the two largest cities, Kiev and Kharkov, Odessa also faces encirclement. This has not been an American style war targeting civilian infrastructure. For the most part, civilian infrastructure is functioning normally, the communications network, power, water and sewerage are still operating, even the trains are still running. The situation in the besieged towns, though, is looking increasingly grim.  In Mariupol it is particularly bad, this is the headquarters of the neonazi Azov battalion. They can expect no mercy from the Russians and have been using the civilian population as human shields, forbidding any citizen from leaving and killing those who try. The fighting is particularly hard there but the city is expected to be cleared in the next couple of days. 

The plight of the big cities, Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa is dire. To date the Russians have kept their formidable firepower in check, traditionally, the Russians rely on massed artillery, if they unleash their firepower on the big cities it will be diabolical. We can only hope a settlement will be reached in the coming days. 

The best outcome from here would be an immediate ceasefire and a negotiated settlement. Ukraine has been comprehensively militarily defeated, a grave embarrassment and humiliation for Nato. The discovery of Pentagon funded bio-warfare labs in Ukraine, as conceded by Victoria Nuland, is a further embarrassment for the US. 

Russia has stated it's conditions for an end to hostilities:

i. Ukraine must recognize Crimea as part of Russia and the Donbass as independent.

ii. Enshrine in its constitution Ukraine as a neutral state, meaning it will never join Nato.

iii. Ultranationalist / Banderites / Neonazis removed from power and outlawed in the constitution. 

Zelensky has already stated that Ukraine won’t join Nato, acknowledging Crimea and Donbass is simply accepting reality and the ultra-nationalists do not have much popular support (they only got about 3% of the vote in the last elections). On the face of it, a settlement could be imminent. The biggest hurdle is Zelensky’s minders, the Americans, who wish to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian and are hoping to drag Russia into a prolonged war of attrition by fuelling an insurgency. A second Afghanistan. Again, this represents a fundamental misunderstanding of the Russian objectives, they are not planning a long term occupation and will leave the country as soon as possible. Another hurdle is the fanatical ultra-nationalists, the leader of Azov has already threatened to assassinate Zelensky if he makes any concessions to the Russians. One of the Ukrainian negotiators was recently killed for ‘treason.’ 

An immediate ceasefire would probably preserve the Ukrainian state, the longer the conflict goes on, the greater the likelihood the Ukraine will be dismembered, with most of the south and east becoming independent states aligned with Russia and the possibility of some of the Western provinces falling to the Romanians, Hungarians and Poles, leaving the remainder as a rump state. 

This fraternal conflict in the Ukraine is a great tragedy for both peoples and dangerous for the entire world. Globalism appears to be dead as the world has divided into two hostile camps. We can only hope that saner minds prevail and a peaceful settlement is reached soon. 

‘We are fools to make war on our brothers in arms’

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