The Ukraine Crisis Is a Classic “Security Dilemma”
It’s frustrating to see Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J. S. Davies not understanding the history of and stakes in the Ukraine conflict, perhaps because they are not willing to see that the only peace settlement that will occur is when one side is defeated, and that side is not likely to be Russia. Moreover, despite Putin recently maintaining that conflicts eventually end in some sort of talks, as we have pointed out, many wars have ended with no pact. Even though Putin keeps making ritual noises about being willing to negotiate, Russia kept trying to reduce security threats without a protracted conflict, even through the end of March in Istanbul. Russia has since gotten confirmation of its worst suspicions and allegations: that the West wants regime change, and even dismemberment of Russia; that as Angela Merkel revealed, the US and Europe were simply playing Russia with the Minsk agreement, buying time to arm Ukraine and never had any intention of implementing the deal.
Looks like we will make it to Dec 31, 2022. Will we make it to December 31, 2023?
This question is not hyperbole. I would even argue that this is the single most important question for at least the entire northern hemisphere.
I have been warning that Russia is preparing for a fullscale war since at least 2014. Putin basically said just that in his recent speech before the Russian Defense Ministry Board. If you have not seen this video, you really should watch it, it it will give you a direct insight into how the Kremlin thinks and what it is preparing for.
Washington Is Prolonging Ukraine's Suffering
Washington’s refusal to acknowledge Russia’s legitimate security interests in Ukraine and negotiate an end to this war is the path to protracted conflict and human suffering.
During a speech given on November 29, Polish Vice-Minister of National Defense (MON) Marcin Ociepa said: "The probability of a war in which we will be involved is very high. Too high for us to treat this scenario only hypothetically." The Polish MON is allegedly planning to call up 200,000 reservists in 2023 for a few weeks’ training, but observers in Warsaw suspect this action could easily lead to a national mobilization.
Meanwhile, inside the Biden administration, there is growing concern that the Ukrainian war effort will collapse under the weight of a Russian offensive. And as the ground in Southern Ukraine finally freezes, the administration’s fears are justified. In an interview published in the Economist, head of Ukraine’s armed forces General Valery Zaluzhny admitted that Russian mobilization and tactics are working. He even hinted that Ukrainian forces might be unable to withstand the coming Russian onslaught.
Yet, Zaluzhny rejected any notion of a negotiated settlement and instead pleaded for
more equipment and support. He went on to insist that with 300 new
tanks, 600 to 700 new infantry fighting vehicles, and 500 new Howitzers,
he could still win the war with Russia. Truthfully, General Zaluzhny is
not asking for assistance, he’s asking for a new army. Therein lies
the greatest danger for Washington and its NATO allies.
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